CCMC CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2025-05-12T23:48:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2025-05-12T23:48ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/38837/-1
CME Note: Bright loop CME first seen in the North by SOHO LASCO C2 beginning at 2025-05-12T23:48Z, as well as by SOHO LASCO C3, STEREO A COR2 and GOES CCOR-1 in later frames. The source of this event is two very large filament eruption, one seen on the Earth facing disk, and the other on the far side. The Earth facing filament has footpoints at approx. N20W50 and N50E60, where as the far sided filament appears to be just beyond the NW limb. These filaments are best seen in SDO AIA and GOES SUVI 304, along with dimming and field line opening seen in SDO AIA 171, 193, 211 and GOES SUVI 284. In coronagraphs, the on disk eruption appears to over shadow the far sided eruption, and they appear as one feature. Complex arrival signature characterized by a gradual increase in B total from 7 nT to eventually 22 nT, accompanied by rotation of two or more magnetic field components (with periods of negative Bz) and by a gradual increase of solar wind speeds from just over 400 km/s to initially 550 and eventually to over 700 km/s. Around 2025-05-17T04:10Z there is a short pileup followed by a decrease in ion density and a very fast rotation of magnetic field components.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-05-16T20:10Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 6.33
Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-05-17T13:22Z (-10.45h, +13.47h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 10.0%
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:
Time of Launch: 2025/05/13 01:00Z Plane of Sky 1: 10:00Z; 31.5Rsun; N Direction Plane of Sky 2: 17:00Z; 31.5Rsun; S Direction POS Difference: 7:00 POS Midpoint: 13:30Z TOL/Midpoint Difference: 12:30 Numeric View/Impact Type: 1 POS Difference Resulted Value: ~8.67 Travel Time: ~8.67 * 12:30 = 108:22 Predicted L1 Arrival: 2025-05-17T13:22Z Error Parameters: - POS Difference: 1 Hour - Travel Time Square Root: 50% Notes: Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 1/5 Method Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/nfk166mjdh Forecast Creation Time: 2025/05/13 23:16ZLead Time: 68.85 hour(s)
Difference: -17.20 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2025-05-13T23:19Z
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